Artemi Panarin’s points at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Artemi Panarin was 0.31 points under at home and 0.05 points over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 8. The plain averages are 1.00 and 1.38, a difference of 0.38.
6 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.31
away
+0.05
02
A −0.37 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
1.38
01234
A −0.38 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | @ COL | L | 1 | 1.33 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ SJS | L | 2 | 1.51 | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs FLA | L | 0 | 1.27 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ VGK | L | 1 | 1.14 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs EDM | L | 0 | 1.30 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs BOS | L | 0 | 1.06 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ WSH | W | 3 | 1.48 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ NYI | W | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | @ NYR | W | 2 | 1.08 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 0 | 1.65 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs OTT | W | 2 | 1.31 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 0 | 1.51 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsSJS | W | 4 | 1.42 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 22%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.