Anton Forsberg’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Anton Forsberg was 2.4 saves over at home and 2.3 saves under away in 2026-27, 2 games against 3. The plain averages are 26.0 and 22.7, a difference of 3.3.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
+2.4
away
−2.3
-50
A +4.7 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
26.0
22.7
2022242628
A +3.3 difference in saves at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ SJS | L | 20 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs BOS | L | 24 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ NJD | L | 23 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 25 | 20.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 28 | 24.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.