Andrei Vasilevskiy’s saves at home and away
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Against his share of what goalies usually saved against his opponents, Andrei Vasilevskiy was 5.1 saves under at home and 0.6 saves under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 6. The plain averages are 18.8 and 23.0, a difference of 4.2.
5 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
saves a game over expected
at home
−5.1
away
−0.6
-505
A −4.5 difference in saves over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
18.8
23.0
15202530
A −4.2 difference in saves at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 13 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | saves | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ NYR | L | 20 | 22.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs WSH | W | 20 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 14 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ NYI | W | 20 | 22.8 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @NYR | L | 19 | 22.4 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 24 | 21.4 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ VGK | W | 32 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ COL | L | 18 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs WPG | W | 17 | 25.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NSH | L | 29 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs DET | W | 19 | 26.6 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalies in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.0 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalies that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalies’ saves in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 100% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.