Alex Ovechkin’s points at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Alex Ovechkin was 0.04 points over at home and 0.03 points over away in 2026-27, 10 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.30 and 0.25, a difference of 0.05.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+0.04
away
+0.03
00.5
A +0.02 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.30
0.25
00.51
A +0.05 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 1 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ TBL | L | 0 | 0.26 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 0 | 0.29 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs NYR | W | 0 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs SEA | L | 1 | 0.32 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @CAR | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs MTL | W | 1 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs NJD | W | 1 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs LAK | L | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BUF | W | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ NSH | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vs DAL | L | 0 | 0.17 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ points in his games, 4%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 97% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 15 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.