Bruins @ Penguins

Thu, Nov 5

The odds have it Penguins 3.33, Bruins 3.31.Expected goals from DraftKings’ moneyline and total on ESPN’s scoreboard, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Bruins at Penguins: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a game	Bruins16 games	Penguins15 games
	+0.44	+0.07
	−0.78	+0.29
	−1.0	+1.0
	+1.0	+0.4
	−0.07	−0.18
	+0.10	−0.25
	+2.9	−3.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Bruins

The Bruins have won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →

The series

The Bruins lead the series 144–91–21 since 1967-68.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

The Penguins have lost 7 of their last 10.countits form →
At home, the Penguins' power-play goals are 0.39 under expected in 7 games. 7 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
The Bruins have won 7 of their last 10.countits form →
Against a team at .500 or under, the Bruins' power-play goals are 0.68 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

Date	Where	Score
Mar 8, 2026	at Penguins	Penguins 5, Bruins 4
Mar 3, 2026	at Bruins	Bruins 2, Penguins 1
Jan 11, 2026	at Bruins	Bruins 1, Penguins 0
Apr 13, 2025	at Penguins	Bruins 4, Penguins 1
Mar 1, 2025	at Penguins	Bruins 3, Penguins 2
Nov 29, 2024	at Bruins	Penguins 2, Bruins 1
Apr 13, 2024	at Penguins	Bruins 6, Penguins 4
Mar 9, 2024	at Bruins	Bruins 5, Penguins 1
Jan 4, 2024	at Bruins	Penguins 6, Bruins 5
Apr 1, 2023	at Penguins	Bruins 4, Penguins 3

Method

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
Goals are the final score’s: a shootout gives its winner one goal, as the standings count it. Shots are shots on goal, and power-play goals allowed are the opponent’s.
A game with no box score sits out.