Putting Up Numbers· NHL

Senators @ Sabres

Wed, Nov 4

The odds have it Sabres 3.52, Senators 3.32.Expected goals from DraftKings’ moneyline and total on ESPN’s scoreboard, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Senators at Sabres: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameSenators16 gamesSabres14 games
+0.07−0.13
+0.04+0.34
−1.8+0.8
+0.10.0
−0.19−0.14
+0.28+0.44
+3.6+0.4

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

The series

  • The Sabres lead the series 94–80–10 since 1992-93. The Sabres have won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Against a team over .500, the Sabres' goals against are 3.28 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • At home, the Sabres' shots against are 4.6 under expected in 6 games. 6 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Against a division opponent, the Sabres' shots against are 3.8 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Against a division opponent, the Senators' penalty minutes are 11.3 over expected in 4 games. 4 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • Against a team over .500, the Senators' goals are 1.18 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Apr 2, 2026at SenatorsSenators 4, Sabres 1
Dec 23, 2025at SenatorsSabres 3, Senators 2
Oct 15, 2025at SabresSabres 8, Senators 4
Apr 1, 2025at SenatorsSabres 5, Senators 2
Mar 25, 2025at SabresSabres 3, Senators 2
Jan 9, 2025at SenatorsSabres 4, Senators 0
Nov 5, 2024at SabresSabres 5, Senators 1
Mar 27, 2024at SabresSenators 6, Sabres 2
Jan 11, 2024at SabresSabres 5, Senators 3
Dec 31, 2023at SenatorsSenators 5, Sabres 1

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Goals are the final score’s: a shootout gives its winner one goal, as the standings count it. Shots are shots on goal, and power-play goals allowed are the opponent’s.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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