The Vikings' rushing yards with Kyler Murray and without Kyler Murray
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 1.6 yards under with Kyler Murray and 6.8 yards over without Kyler Murray over their last 35 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 114.2 and 113.0, a difference of 1.2. Expected was 9.6 yards higher with Kyler Murray than without Kyler Murray. All 4 games outside the division were with Kyler Murray.
Kyler Murray, quarterback: 1,022 passing yards, 154 pass attempts and 100 completions in 6 of those 35 games, 25% of MIN’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Kyler Murray is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −8.4 difference in rushing yards over expected with Kyler Murray vs without Kyler Murray is about what you’d expect.
A +1.2 difference in rushing yards with Kyler Murray vs without Kyler Murray is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs IND | W | 133 | 122.1 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 169 | 115.0 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ TEN | W | 82 | 126.2 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 124 | 118.7 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 68 | 122.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 115 | 111.6 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | vsCHI | W | 114 | 118.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ SEA | W | 81 | 113.6 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs GB | W | 69 | 95.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ DET | L | 120 | 93.5 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs LA (neutral) | L | 106 | 121.9 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | @CHI | W | 120 | 118.8 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsATL | L | 78 | 117.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 169 | 122.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 70 | 109.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs CLE (neutral) | W | 97 | 109.9 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs PHI | L | 89 | 112.4 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 34 | 110.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @DET | W | 142 | 104.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs BAL | L | 120 | 106.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCHI | L | 115 | 121.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @GB | L | 93 | 108.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @SEA | L | 66 | 99.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 162 | 120.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 77 | 115.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 114 | 124.9 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDET | W | 158 | 106.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsGB | W | 137 | 108.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsGB | W | 107 | 108.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @CHI | W | 119 | 104.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 78 | 107.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 123 | 114.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 153 | 120.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsIND | W | 136 | 122.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DET | L | 81 | 114.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 28 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Kyler Murray nor without Kyler Murray: Kyler Murray had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.