The Vikings' rushing yards with Justin Jefferson and without Justin Jefferson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 0.5 yards under with Justin Jefferson and 8.8 yards over without Justin Jefferson in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 112.3 and 123.0, a difference of 10.7. All 4 away games were with Justin Jefferson. All 3 division games were with Justin Jefferson. All 3 first-half games were with Justin Jefferson.
Justin Jefferson, receiver: 335 receiving yards, 28 receptions and 40 targets in 6 games this season.
One game without Justin Jefferson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Justin Jefferson
−0.5
without Justin Jefferson
+8.8
-20020
plain
112.3
123.0
80100120140
The games
with Justin Jeffersonwithout Justin Jefferson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs GB | W | 107 | 108.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 119 | 104.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 78 | 107.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 123 | 114.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 153 | 120.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | W | 136 | 122.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DET | L | 81 | 114.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.