The Vikings' points with Kyler Murray and without Kyler Murray
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 4.5 points under with Kyler Murray and 3.1 points over without Kyler Murray in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 18.4 and 24.0, a difference of 5.6. All 4 games outside the division were with Kyler Murray. All 4 second-half games were with Kyler Murray.
Kyler Murray, quarterback: 1,022 passing yards, 154 pass attempts and 100 completions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kyler Murray is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −7.6 difference in points over expected with Kyler Murray vs without Kyler Murray is about what you’d expect.
A −5.6 difference in points with Kyler Murray vs without Kyler Murray is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs GB | W | 39 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 9 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 23 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 15 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 23 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | W | 16 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DET | L | 15 | 23.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.