The Vikings' points of margin with Justin Jefferson and without Justin Jefferson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 5.5 points over with Justin Jefferson and 0.3 points over without Justin Jefferson in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 7.0 and 5.0, a difference of 2.0. Expected was 3.2 points lower with Justin Jefferson than without Justin Jefferson. All 4 away games were with Justin Jefferson. All 3 division games were with Justin Jefferson. All 3 first-half games were with Justin Jefferson.
Justin Jefferson, receiver: 335 receiving yards, 28 receptions and 40 targets in 6 games this season.
One game without Justin Jefferson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Justin Jefferson
+5.5
without Justin Jefferson
+0.3
010
plain
7.0
5.0
010
The games
with Justin Jeffersonwithout Justin Jefferson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs GB | W | 17 | 0.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 6 | -0.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 7 | -0.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 5 | 4.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 10 | 3.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | W | 6 | 5.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DET | L | -4 | 1.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.