The Vikings' points allowed with Justin Jefferson and without Justin Jefferson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 1.9 points under with Justin Jefferson and 9.3 points under without Justin Jefferson over their last 35 games, 34 games against 1. The plain averages are 18.8 and 10.0, a difference of 8.8. All 16 away games were with Justin Jefferson. All 3 neutral-site games were with Justin Jefferson. All 13 division games were with Justin Jefferson.
Justin Jefferson, receiver: 2,328 receiving yards, 179 receptions and 283 targets in 34 of those 35 games.
One game without Justin Jefferson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Justin Jefferson
−1.9
without Justin Jefferson
−9.3
-20-10010
plain
18.8
10.0
0102030
The games
with Justin Jeffersonwithout Justin Jefferson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs IND | W | 13 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 7 | 19.6 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ TEN | W | 13 | 18.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 27 | 17.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 22 | 20.6 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 21 | 20.1 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | vsCHI | W | 12 | 17.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ SEA | W | 24 | 21.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs GB | W | 25 | 22.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ DET | L | 31 | 28.7 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs LA (neutral) | L | 27 | 20.4 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | @CHI | W | 24 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsATL | L | 22 | 17.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 10 | 21.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 24 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs CLE (neutral) | W | 17 | 14.2 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs PHI | L | 28 | 17.0 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 37 | 18.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @DET | W | 24 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs BAL | L | 27 | 20.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCHI | L | 19 | 21.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @GB | L | 23 | 20.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @SEA | L | 26 | 25.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 0 | 19.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 26 | 24.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 13 | 21.2 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDET | W | 10 | 24.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsGB | W | 3 | 20.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsGB | W | 22 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @CHI | W | 3 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 16 | 20.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 10 | 19.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 13 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsIND | W | 10 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DET | L | 19 | 21.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.