The Vikings' points allowed with Jordan Addison and without Jordan Addison
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 2.0 points under with Jordan Addison and 3.3 points under without Jordan Addison over their last 35 games, 31 games against 4. The plain averages are 18.7 and 17.3, a difference of 1.4. All 3 neutral-site games were with Jordan Addison. Both games after a bye were with Jordan Addison. Both games on a short week were with Jordan Addison.
Jordan Addison, receiver: 1,532 receiving yards, 110 receptions and 196 targets in 31 of those 35 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Jordan Addison
−2.0
without Jordan Addison
−3.3
-20-10010
A +1.3 difference in points allowed over expected with Jordan Addison vs without Jordan Addison is about what you’d expect.
plain
18.7
17.3
0102030
A +1.4 difference in points allowed with Jordan Addison vs without Jordan Addison is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jordan Addisonwithout Jordan Addison
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs IND | W | 13 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 7 | 19.6 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ TEN | W | 13 | 18.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 27 | 17.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 22 | 20.6 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 21 | 20.1 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | vsCHI | W | 12 | 17.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ SEA | W | 24 | 21.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs GB | W | 25 | 22.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ DET | L | 31 | 28.7 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs LA (neutral) | L | 27 | 20.4 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | @CHI | W | 24 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsATL | L | 22 | 17.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 10 | 21.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 24 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs CLE (neutral) | W | 17 | 14.2 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs PHI | L | 28 | 17.0 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 37 | 18.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @DET | W | 24 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs BAL | L | 27 | 20.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCHI | L | 19 | 21.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @GB | L | 23 | 20.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @SEA | L | 26 | 25.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 0 | 19.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 26 | 24.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 13 | 21.2 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDET | W | 10 | 24.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsGB | W | 3 | 20.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsGB | W | 22 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @CHI | W | 3 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 16 | 20.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 10 | 19.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 13 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsIND | W | 10 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DET | L | 19 | 21.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.9 in 2024, minus 1.1 in 2025, minus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.