The Vikings' passing yards with Kyler Murray and without Kyler Murray
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 13.1 yards under with Kyler Murray and 69.2 yards under without Kyler Murray in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 200.8 and 147.0, a difference of 53.8. All 4 games outside the division were with Kyler Murray. All 4 second-half games were with Kyler Murray.
Kyler Murray, quarterback: 1,022 passing yards, 154 pass attempts and 100 completions in 6 games this season, 88% of MIN’s passing yards in those games.
2 games without Kyler Murray is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A +56.2 difference in passing yards over expected with Kyler Murray vs without Kyler Murray is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kyler Murray and it comes up 19 times in 100.
A +53.8 difference in passing yards with Kyler Murray vs without Kyler Murray is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kyler Murray and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs GB | W | 151 | 212.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 143 | 220.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 168 | 204.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 247 | 190.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 229 | 216.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | W | 150 | 221.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DET | L | 210 | 237.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.