The Vikings' carries with Justin Jefferson and without Justin Jefferson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 1.0 carries over with Justin Jefferson and 2.6 carries over without Justin Jefferson in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 28.0 and 31.0, a difference of 3.0. All 4 away games were with Justin Jefferson. All 3 division games were with Justin Jefferson. All 3 first-half games were with Justin Jefferson.
Justin Jefferson, receiver: 335 receiving yards, 28 receptions and 40 targets in 6 games this season, 1% of MIN’s carries in those games.
One game without Justin Jefferson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Justin Jefferson
+1.0
without Justin Jefferson
+2.6
-505
plain
28.0
31.0
20253035
The games
with Justin Jeffersonwithout Justin Jefferson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs GB | W | 34 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 28 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 23 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 31 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 36 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs IND | W | 29 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DET | L | 18 | 27.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.