The Vikings' carries with Jauan Jennings and without Jauan Jennings
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Vikings were 1.0 carries over with Jauan Jennings and 2.6 carries over without Jauan Jennings over their last 35 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 28.5 and 28.0, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 2.1 carries higher with Jauan Jennings than without Jauan Jennings. All 3 home games were with Jauan Jennings. All 4 games outside the division were with Jauan Jennings.
Jauan Jennings, receiver: 54 receiving yards, 6 receptions and 10 targets in 6 of those 35 games.
One game without Jauan Jennings is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jauan Jennings
+1.0
without Jauan Jennings
+2.6
-505
plain
28.5
28.0
20253035
The games
with Jauan Jenningswithout Jauan Jennings
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs IND | W | 32 | 29.8 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ JAX | W | 43 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ TEN | W | 33 | 28.3 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 27 | 27.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 15 | 28.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 24 | 26.6 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | vsCHI | W | 29 | 27.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ SEA | W | 24 | 26.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs GB | W | 26 | 24.8 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ DET | L | 19 | 23.7 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs LA (neutral) | L | 22 | 27.5 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | @CHI | W | 26 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsATL | L | 19 | 25.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 31 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 20 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs CLE (neutral) | W | 23 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs PHI | L | 23 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 11 | 25.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @DET | W | 29 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs BAL | L | 18 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCHI | L | 22 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @GB | L | 20 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @SEA | L | 16 | 24.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 34 | 26.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 28 | 24.6 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 31 | 24.9 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | vsDET | W | 28 | 25.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsGB | W | 31 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsGB | W | 34 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @CHI | W | 28 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ TB | W | 23 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs MIA | W | 31 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ NO | W | 36 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsIND | W | 29 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DET | L | 18 | 27.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 28 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jauan Jennings nor without Jauan Jennings: Jauan Jennings had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.