The Titans' rushing yards with Tyjae Spears and since Tyjae Spears’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Titans were 27.8 yards under with Tyjae Spears and 47.3 yards over since Tyjae Spears’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 82.8 and 149.5, a difference of 66.7. Both division games were with Tyjae Spears. All 4 first-half games were with Tyjae Spears.
Tyjae Spears, running back: 66 rushing yards, 18 carries and 15 receptions in 6 games this season, 13% of TEN’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games since Tyjae Spears’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −75.1 difference in rushing yards over expected with Tyjae Spears vs since Tyjae Spears’ last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Tyjae Spears and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −66.7 difference in rushing yards with Tyjae Spears vs since Tyjae Spears’ last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Tyjae Spears and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs NYJ | L | 68 | 114.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs PHI | L | 122 | 109.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 81 | 119.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ BAL | L | 85 | 101.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs HOU | L | 57 | 103.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ IND | W | 84 | 115.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 141 | 104.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 158 | 100.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.