The Titans' points with Tyjae Spears and without Tyjae Spears
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Titans were 3.1 points under with Tyjae Spears and 0.5 points over without Tyjae Spears over their last 35 games, 26 games against 9. The plain averages are 17.0 and 19.7, a difference of 2.7.
Tyjae Spears, running back: 547 rushing yards, 141 carries and 78 receptions in 26 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with Tyjae Spears
−3.1
without Tyjae Spears
+0.5
-10010
A −3.6 difference in points over expected with Tyjae Spears vs without Tyjae Spears is about what you’d expect.
plain
17.0
19.7
0102030
A −2.7 difference in points with Tyjae Spears vs without Tyjae Spears is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Tyjae Spearswithout Tyjae Spears
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs NE | W | 20 | 21.8 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 17 | 16.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs MIN | L | 13 | 18.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ HOU | W | 32 | 16.9 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ WAS | L | 19 | 20.2 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs JAX | L | 6 | 24.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs CIN | L | 27 | 22.3 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ IND | L | 30 | 20.5 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @JAX | L | 13 | 22.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 14 | 19.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ DEN | L | 12 | 17.1 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs LA | L | 19 | 18.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsIND | L | 20 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @HOU | L | 0 | 15.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ ARI | W | 22 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ LV | L | 10 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsNE | L | 13 | 18.8 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @IND | L | 14 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vsLAC | L | 20 | 19.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 13 | 16.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 24 | 14.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsJAX | L | 3 | 19.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ CLE | W | 31 | 17.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ SF | L | 24 | 17.5 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs KC | W | 26 | 17.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs NO | L | 26 | 19.9 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @JAX | L | 7 | 17.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs NYJ | L | 10 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs PHI | L | 20 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 7 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ BAL | L | 18 | 21.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsHOU | L | 3 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @IND | W | 26 | 22.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vsCLE | L | 24 | 20.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @CIN | L | 36 | 20.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.