The Titans' points of margin with Tyjae Spears and since Tyjae Spears’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Titans were 6.3 points under with Tyjae Spears and 1.0 points under since Tyjae Spears’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are -7.5 and -5.0, a difference of 2.5. Expected was 2.8 points higher with Tyjae Spears than since Tyjae Spears’ last game. Both division games were with Tyjae Spears. All 4 first-half games were with Tyjae Spears.
Tyjae Spears, running back: 66 rushing yards, 18 carries and 15 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Tyjae Spears’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −5.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Tyjae Spears vs since Tyjae Spears’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A −2.5 difference in points of margin with Tyjae Spears vs since Tyjae Spears’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs NYJ | L | -13 | -1.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs PHI | L | -4 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ NYG | L | -5 | -1.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ BAL | L | -6 | -1.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs HOU | L | -23 | -1.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ IND | W | 6 | -1.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs CLE | L | -3 | -2.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ CIN | L | -7 | -5.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.