The Titans' points allowed with Tyjae Spears and since Tyjae Spears’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Titans were 1.9 points under with Tyjae Spears and 11.2 points over since Tyjae Spears’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 21.5 and 35.0, a difference of 13.5. Both division games were with Tyjae Spears. All 4 first-half games were with Tyjae Spears.
Tyjae Spears, running back: 66 rushing yards, 18 carries and 15 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Tyjae Spears’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −13.0 difference in points allowed over expected with Tyjae Spears vs since Tyjae Spears’ last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Tyjae Spears and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −13.5 difference in points allowed with Tyjae Spears vs since Tyjae Spears’ last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Tyjae Spears and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs NYJ | L | 23 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs PHI | L | 24 | 21.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 12 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ BAL | L | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs HOU | L | 26 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ IND | W | 20 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs CLE | L | 27 | 22.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ CIN | L | 43 | 25.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.