The Steelers' turnovers with Rico Dowdle and without Rico Dowdle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Steelers were 0.3 turnovers under with Rico Dowdle and 0.2 turnovers under without Rico Dowdle in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.0 and 1.0, a difference of 0.0.
Rico Dowdle, running back: 174 rushing yards, 46 carries and 13 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Rico Dowdle is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
turnovers a game over expected
with Rico Dowdle
−0.3
without Rico Dowdle
−0.2
-10
A −0.0 difference in turnovers over expected with Rico Dowdle vs without Rico Dowdle is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.0
1.0
00.511.52
A 0.0 difference in turnovers with Rico Dowdle vs without Rico Dowdle is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Rico Dowdlewithout Rico Dowdle
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NE | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs CIN | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs IND | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ TB | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NO (neutral) | W | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 1 | 1.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 2% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.