The Steelers' points with Rico Dowdle and without Rico Dowdle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Steelers were 4.5 points under with Rico Dowdle and 6.2 points over without Rico Dowdle over their last 35 games, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 18.4 and 29.3, a difference of 10.9.
Rico Dowdle, running back: 174 rushing yards, 46 carries and 13 receptions in 5 of those 35 games.
3 games without Rico Dowdle is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −10.7 difference in points over expected with Rico Dowdle vs without Rico Dowdle is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Rico Dowdle and it comes up 8 times in 100.
A −10.9 difference in points with Rico Dowdle vs without Rico Dowdle is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Rico Dowdle and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs BAL | W | 18 | 21.4 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | @ CLE | L | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ CIN | W | 44 | 22.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vsCLE | W | 27 | 24.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 13 | 18.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @BAL | L | 17 | 20.1 | |
| Dec 25, 2024 | vs KC | L | 10 | 21.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vsCIN | L | 17 | 26.0 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @BAL | L | 14 | 20.3 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ NYJ | W | 34 | 25.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 17 | 18.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ NE | W | 21 | 18.9 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | W | 24 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsCLE | W | 23 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @CIN | L | 31 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs GB | L | 25 | 22.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs IND | W | 27 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 10 | 20.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCIN | W | 34 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 28 | 22.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs BUF | L | 7 | 25.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @BAL | W | 27 | 21.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 28 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ DET | W | 29 | 22.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @CLE | L | 6 | 22.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsBAL | W | 26 | 23.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs HOU | L | 6 | 19.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 20 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @NE | L | 3 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsCIN | W | 30 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @CLE | L | 24 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsIND | W | 34 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ TB | W | 26 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NO (neutral) | W | 16 | 25.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 27 | 22.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Rico Dowdle nor without Rico Dowdle: Rico Dowdle had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.