The Steelers' points with Michael Pittman and without Michael Pittman
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Steelers were 1.9 points over with Michael Pittman and 1.9 points under without Michael Pittman over their last 35 games, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 24.7 and 21.2, a difference of 3.5.
Michael Pittman, receiver: 89 receiving yards, 7 receptions and 12 targets in 3 of those 35 games.
3 games with Michael Pittman is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Michael Pittman
+1.9
without Michael Pittman
−1.9
-100
A +3.8 difference in points over expected with Michael Pittman vs without Michael Pittman is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.7
21.2
102030
A +3.5 difference in points with Michael Pittman vs without Michael Pittman is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Michael Pittmanwithout Michael Pittman
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs BAL | W | 18 | 21.4 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | @ CLE | L | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ CIN | W | 44 | 22.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vsCLE | W | 27 | 24.0 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ PHI | L | 13 | 18.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @BAL | L | 17 | 20.1 | |
| Dec 25, 2024 | vs KC | L | 10 | 21.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vsCIN | L | 17 | 26.0 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @BAL | L | 14 | 20.3 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ NYJ | W | 34 | 25.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 17 | 18.1 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ NE | W | 21 | 18.9 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | W | 24 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vsCLE | W | 23 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @CIN | L | 31 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs GB | L | 25 | 22.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs IND | W | 27 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 10 | 20.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsCIN | W | 34 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 28 | 22.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs BUF | L | 7 | 25.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @BAL | W | 27 | 21.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vs MIA | W | 28 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ DET | W | 29 | 22.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @CLE | L | 6 | 22.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsBAL | W | 26 | 23.6 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs HOU | L | 6 | 19.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 20 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @NE | L | 3 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsCIN | W | 30 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @CLE | L | 24 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsIND | W | 34 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ TB | W | 26 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NO (neutral) | W | 16 | 25.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 27 | 22.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Michael Pittman nor without Michael Pittman: Michael Pittman had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.