The Steelers' points allowed with Rico Dowdle and without Rico Dowdle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Steelers were 8.4 points under with Rico Dowdle and 3.6 points over without Rico Dowdle in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 13.6 and 25.3, a difference of 11.7.
Rico Dowdle, running back: 174 rushing yards, 46 carries and 13 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Rico Dowdle is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −12.1 difference in points allowed over expected with Rico Dowdle vs without Rico Dowdle is unusual: shuffle which games were with Rico Dowdle and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A −11.7 difference in points allowed with Rico Dowdle vs without Rico Dowdle is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Rico Dowdle and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 13 | 22.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NE | L | 20 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs CIN | W | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 27 | 20.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs IND | W | 22 | 21.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ TB | W | 19 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NO (neutral) | W | 10 | 22.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 6 | 21.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.