The Steelers' carries with Rico Dowdle and without Rico Dowdle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Steelers were 0.3 carries under with Rico Dowdle and 5.4 carries under without Rico Dowdle in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 25.8 and 21.3, a difference of 4.5.
Rico Dowdle, running back: 174 rushing yards, 46 carries and 13 receptions in 5 games this season, 36% of PIT’s carries in those games.
3 games without Rico Dowdle is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Rico Dowdle
−0.3
without Rico Dowdle
−5.4
-505
A +5.1 difference in carries over expected with Rico Dowdle vs without Rico Dowdle is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.8
21.3
202530
A +4.5 difference in carries with Rico Dowdle vs without Rico Dowdle is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Rico Dowdlewithout Rico Dowdle
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ATL | W | 21 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NE | L | 23 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs CIN | W | 23 | 26.2 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ CLE | L | 19 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs IND | W | 22 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ TB | W | 22 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs NO (neutral) | W | 30 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsCLE | W | 33 | 26.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.