The Saints' rushing yards with Spencer Rattler and without Spencer Rattler
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Saints were 16.5 yards under with Spencer Rattler and 7.8 yards under without Spencer Rattler over their last 35 games, 13 games against 22. The plain averages are 92.0 and 101.6, a difference of 9.6. Both games after a bye were without Spencer Rattler.
Spencer Rattler, quarterback: 2,660 passing yards, 445 pass attempts and 282 completions in 15 of those 35 games, 22% of NO’s rushing yards in those games.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Spencer Rattler
−16.5
without Spencer Rattler
−7.8
-50050100
A −8.7 difference in rushing yards over expected with Spencer Rattler vs without Spencer Rattler is about what you’d expect.
plain
92.0
101.6
50100150200
A −9.6 difference in rushing yards with Spencer Rattler vs without Spencer Rattler is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Spencer Rattlerwithout Spencer Rattler
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | vs DEN | L | 97 | 104.5 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 117 | 117.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ CAR | L | 186 | 158.4 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 96 | 117.4 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs CLE | W | 214 | 108.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs LA | L | 143 | 122.6 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 92 | 120.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs WAS | L | 69 | 128.6 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @ GB | L | 67 | 101.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs LV | L | 81 | 117.6 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ TB | L | 64 | 93.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs ARI | L | 107 | 110.1 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs SF | L | 121 | 100.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ SEA | L | 79 | 92.3 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 189 | 107.4 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 88 | 123.0 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs NE | L | 73 | 96.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 44 | 118.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsTB | L | 48 | 98.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @LA | L | 57 | 100.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @CAR | W | 122 | 104.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsATL | L | 79 | 111.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ MIA | L | 81 | 109.6 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @TB | W | 139 | 91.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsCAR | W | 81 | 108.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 84 | 116.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 103 | 103.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ATL | L | 108 | 107.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | 91 | 99.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 65 | 102.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsLV | L | 148 | 107.9 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vsATL | L | 50 | 109.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 55 | 106.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @NYG | W | 175 | 106.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 18 | 96.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.5 in 2024, plus 1.9 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2024, 49% in 2025, 32% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.