The Saints' rushing yards with Alvin Kamara and without Alvin Kamara
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Saints were 19.7 yards under with Alvin Kamara and 8.8 yards under without Alvin Kamara in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 85.2 and 91.0, a difference of 5.8. All 3 home games were with Alvin Kamara. All 4 second-half games were with Alvin Kamara.
Alvin Kamara, running back: 125 rushing yards, 41 carries and 22 receptions in 6 games this season, 24% of NO’s rushing yards in those games.
One game without Alvin Kamara is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Alvin Kamara
−19.7
without Alvin Kamara
−8.8
-50050
plain
85.2
91.0
50100150
The games
with Alvin Kamarawithout Alvin Kamara
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | 91 | 99.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 65 | 102.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LV | L | 148 | 107.9 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 50 | 109.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 55 | 106.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NYG | W | 175 | 106.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 18 | 96.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.