The Saints' points with Alvin Kamara and without Alvin Kamara
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Saints were 3.2 points under with Alvin Kamara and 0.7 points under without Alvin Kamara over their last 35 games, 25 games against 10. The plain averages are 17.6 and 20.0, a difference of 2.4. Both games after a bye were with Alvin Kamara.
Alvin Kamara, running back: 1,118 rushing yards, 296 carries and 95 receptions in 25 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with Alvin Kamara
−3.2
without Alvin Kamara
−0.7
-10010
A −2.5 difference in points over expected with Alvin Kamara vs without Alvin Kamara is about what you’d expect.
plain
17.6
20.0
0102030
A −2.4 difference in points with Alvin Kamara vs without Alvin Kamara is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Alvin Kamarawithout Alvin Kamara
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | vs DEN | L | 10 | 18.9 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 8 | 17.9 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ CAR | L | 22 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 20 | 22.8 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs CLE | W | 35 | 21.3 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs LA | L | 14 | 20.6 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 14 | 20.5 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs WAS | L | 19 | 22.4 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @ GB | L | 0 | 19.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs LV | L | 10 | 24.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ TB | L | 19 | 19.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs ARI | L | 13 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs SF | L | 21 | 18.5 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ SEA | L | 13 | 13.1 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 19 | 18.7 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 26 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs NE | L | 19 | 17.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 14 | 20.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsTB | L | 3 | 22.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @LA | L | 10 | 16.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @CAR | W | 17 | 17.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsATL | L | 10 | 21.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ MIA | L | 17 | 20.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @TB | W | 24 | 18.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsCAR | W | 20 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 29 | 24.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 34 | 20.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ATL | L | 17 | 19.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | 30 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 24 | 23.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsLV | L | 27 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vsATL | L | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 13 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @NYG | W | 34 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 10 | 22.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.