The Saints' points of margin with Kendre Miller and without Kendre Miller
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Saints were 5.1 points under with Kendre Miller and 7.7 points over without Kendre Miller in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -6.5 and 7.0, a difference of 13.5. All 3 home games were with Kendre Miller. All 4 second-half games were with Kendre Miller.
Kendre Miller, running back: 159 rushing yards, 57 carries and 9 receptions in 6 games this season.
One game without Kendre Miller is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Kendre Miller
−5.1
without Kendre Miller
+7.7
-20-100
plain
-6.5
7.0
-20-100
The games
with Kendre Millerwithout Kendre Miller
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | -1 | -3.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 7 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LV | L | -8 | 0.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs ATL | L | -21 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | -10 | -3.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NYG | W | 7 | -0.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | -6 | -2.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.