The Saints' points of margin with Alvin Kamara and without Alvin Kamara
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Saints were 4.1 points under with Alvin Kamara and 2.0 points over without Alvin Kamara in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -5.2 and -1.0, a difference of 4.2. All 3 home games were with Alvin Kamara. All 4 second-half games were with Alvin Kamara.
Alvin Kamara, running back: 125 rushing yards, 41 carries and 22 receptions in 6 games this season.
One game without Alvin Kamara is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Alvin Kamara
−4.1
without Alvin Kamara
+2.0
-20-100
plain
-5.2
-1.0
-20-100
The games
with Alvin Kamarawithout Alvin Kamara
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | -1 | -3.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 7 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LV | L | -8 | 0.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs ATL | L | -21 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | -10 | -3.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NYG | W | 7 | -0.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | -6 | -2.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.