The Saints' passing yards with Kendre Miller and without Kendre Miller
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Saints were 9.1 yards under with Kendre Miller and 17.0 yards over without Kendre Miller over their last 35 games, 19 games against 16. The plain averages are 222.3 and 250.3, a difference of 28.0. Both games after a bye were without Kendre Miller.
Kendre Miller, running back: 500 rushing yards, 143 carries and 19 receptions in 19 of those 35 games.
passing yards a game over expected
with Kendre Miller
−9.1
without Kendre Miller
+17.0
-1000100
A −26.0 difference in passing yards over expected with Kendre Miller vs without Kendre Miller is about what you’d expect.
plain
222.3
250.3
100200300400
A −28.0 difference in passing yards with Kendre Miller vs without Kendre Miller is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kendre Miller and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
with Kendre Millerwithout Kendre Miller
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | vs DEN | L | 210 | 232.2 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 281 | 220.1 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ CAR | L | 236 | 226.3 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 269 | 230.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs CLE | W | 266 | 224.5 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs LA | L | 184 | 229.5 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 219 | 222.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs WAS | L | 205 | 223.5 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @ GB | L | 153 | 224.8 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs LV | L | 218 | 229.7 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ TB | L | 240 | 238.0 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs ARI | L | 214 | 239.2 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs SF | L | 207 | 237.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ SEA | L | 218 | 219.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 126 | 212.5 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 244 | 235.1 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs NE | L | 227 | 229.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 233 | 244.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsTB | L | 264 | 252.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @LA | L | 176 | 241.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @CAR | W | 282 | 213.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsATL | L | 243 | 233.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ MIA | L | 239 | 238.8 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @TB | W | 144 | 256.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsCAR | W | 272 | 220.2 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 346 | 226.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 333 | 231.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ATL | L | 259 | 225.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | 410 | 240.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 252 | 245.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsLV | L | 255 | 241.7 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vsATL | L | 286 | 231.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 96 | 236.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @NYG | W | 144 | 226.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 278 | 248.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.7 in 2024, plus 4.5 in 2025, plus 1.5 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 36% in 2024, 64% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.