The Saints' pass attempts with Alvin Kamara and without Alvin Kamara
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Saints were 1.1 pass attempts over with Alvin Kamara and 20.4 pass attempts over without Alvin Kamara in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.2 and 56.0, a difference of 19.8. All 3 home games were with Alvin Kamara. All 4 second-half games were with Alvin Kamara.
Alvin Kamara, running back: 125 rushing yards, 41 carries and 22 receptions in 6 games this season.
One game without Alvin Kamara is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
with Alvin Kamara
+1.1
without Alvin Kamara
+20.4
-1001020
plain
36.2
56.0
304050
The games
with Alvin Kamarawithout Alvin Kamara
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | 56 | 35.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 34 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LV | L | 42 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 48 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 25 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ NYG | W | 30 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 38 | 36.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 34% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.