The Saints' carries with Travis Etienne and since Travis Etienne’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Saints were 0.3 carries over with Travis Etienne and 3.6 carries under since Travis Etienne’s last game over their last 35 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 26.7 and 22.8, a difference of 3.9.
Travis Etienne, running back: 128 rushing yards, 30 carries and 11 receptions in 3 of those 35 games, 38% of NO’s carries in those games.
3 games with Travis Etienne is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +3.9 difference in carries over expected with Travis Etienne vs since Travis Etienne’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +3.9 difference in carries with Travis Etienne vs since Travis Etienne’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | vs DEN | L | 21 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 21 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ CAR | L | 40 | 31.2 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 27 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs CLE | W | 28 | 26.9 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs LA | L | 31 | 26.6 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ NYG | W | 33 | 26.5 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs WAS | L | 16 | 27.4 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @ GB | L | 20 | 25.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs LV | L | 13 | 27.6 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ TB | L | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs ARI | L | 22 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vs SF | L | 30 | 25.7 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ SEA | L | 27 | 24.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 34 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 30 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs NE | L | 23 | 25.6 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ CHI | L | 17 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsTB | L | 15 | 25.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @LA | L | 14 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @CAR | W | 37 | 26.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsATL | L | 28 | 26.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ MIA | L | 27 | 26.3 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @TB | W | 32 | 23.5 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsCAR | W | 25 | 27.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 25 | 29.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 23 | 26.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ATL | L | 26 | 26.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ DET | L | 25 | 25.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ BAL | W | 27 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vsLV | L | 28 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 5, 2026 | vsATL | L | 19 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs MIN | L | 17 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @NYG | W | 38 | 26.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs PIT (neutral) | L | 17 | 25.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 28 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Travis Etienne nor since Travis Etienne’s last game: Travis Etienne had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.