The Packers' points with Micah Parsons and since Micah Parsons’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Packers were 1.5 points over with Micah Parsons and 2.6 points under since Micah Parsons’ last game over their last 35 games, 14 games against 12. The plain averages are 24.9 and 20.1, a difference of 4.8.
Micah Parsons, linebacker: 12.5 sacks in 14 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with Micah Parsons
+1.5
since Micah Parsons’ last game
−2.6
-10010
A +4.1 difference in points over expected with Micah Parsons vs since Micah Parsons’ last game is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.9
20.1
10203040
A +4.8 difference in points with Micah Parsons vs since Micah Parsons’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Micah Parsons and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
with Micah Parsonssince Micah Parsons’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 20 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs SF | W | 38 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs MIA | W | 30 | 25.8 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @ DET | L | 31 | 23.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ SEA | W | 30 | 23.6 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | vs NO | W | 34 | 26.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ MIN | L | 25 | 22.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsCHI | L | 22 | 25.0 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ PHI | L | 10 | 22.6 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsDET | W | 27 | 24.2 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 27 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ CLE | L | 10 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ DAL | T | 40 | 26.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 27 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ ARI | W | 27 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ PIT | W | 35 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs CAR | L | 13 | 23.5 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vsPHI | L | 7 | 21.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 27 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsMIN | W | 23 | 20.4 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @DET | W | 31 | 22.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 28 | 24.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ DEN | L | 26 | 18.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @CHI | L | 16 | 23.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs BAL | L | 24 | 24.0 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @MIN | L | 3 | 20.3 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @CHI | L | 27 | 22.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @MIN | L | 22 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 20 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 14 | 23.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ TB | W | 17 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCHI | W | 31 | 21.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 23 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @DET | L | 17 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 27 | 24.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 9 games in 2024 are neither with Micah Parsons nor since Micah Parsons’ last game: Micah Parsons had no game for the team that season, and sit out.