The Packers' points of margin with Josh Jacobs and without Josh Jacobs
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Packers were 1.6 points over with Josh Jacobs and 0.6 points over without Josh Jacobs over their last 35 games, 27 games against 8. The plain averages are 3.8 and 0.8, a difference of 3.0. Both games after a bye were with Josh Jacobs. Both playoff games were with Josh Jacobs.
Josh Jacobs, running back: 1,707 rushing yards, 446 carries and 68 receptions in 27 of those 35 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Josh Jacobs
+1.6
without Josh Jacobs
+0.6
-20020
A +1.1 difference in points of margin over expected with Josh Jacobs vs without Josh Jacobs is about what you’d expect.
plain
3.8
0.8
-20020
A +3.0 difference in points of margin with Josh Jacobs vs without Josh Jacobs is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Josh Jacobswithout Josh Jacobs
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 1 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs SF | W | 28 | 6.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs MIA | W | 13 | 9.4 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @ DET | L | -3 | -5.5 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ SEA | W | 17 | 2.2 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | vs NO | W | 34 | 8.2 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ MIN | L | -2 | 0.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsCHI | L | -2 | 10.4 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ PHI | L | -12 | -2.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsDET | W | 14 | -1.8 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 9 | 6.9 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ CLE | L | -3 | 5.4 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ DAL | T | 0 | 2.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 9 | 6.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ ARI | W | 4 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ PIT | W | 10 | -1.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs CAR | L | -3 | 5.6 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vsPHI | L | -3 | 0.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 7 | 1.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsMIN | W | 17 | 0.7 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @DET | W | 7 | -5.1 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 7 | 1.4 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ DEN | L | -8 | -3.3 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @CHI | L | -6 | -1.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs BAL | L | -17 | 3.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @MIN | L | -13 | -0.5 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @CHI | L | -4 | -1.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @MIN | L | -17 | -0.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs ATL | L | -21 | 3.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ TB | W | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCHI | W | 24 | -3.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 10 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @DET | L | -3 | -0.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 8 | 1.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2024, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.