The Packers' points of margin with Jonnu Smith and since Jonnu Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Packers were 0.3 points under with Jonnu Smith and 7.0 points over since Jonnu Smith’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are -0.1 and 8.0, a difference of 8.1. All 4 away games were with Jonnu Smith. All 3 division games were with Jonnu Smith. All 5 games on a full week’s rest or more were with Jonnu Smith.
Jonnu Smith, tight end: 94 receiving yards, 6 receptions and 8 targets in 4 games this season.
One game since Jonnu Smith’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jonnu Smith
−0.3
since Jonnu Smith’s last game
+7.0
-20020
plain
-0.1
8.0
-20020
The games
with Jonnu Smithsince Jonnu Smith’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ MIN | L | -17 | -0.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs ATL | L | -21 | 3.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ TB | W | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs CHI | W | 24 | -3.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs DAL | W | 10 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ DET | L | -3 | -0.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs CAR | W | 8 | 1.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.