The Packers' points allowed with Jonnu Smith and since Jonnu Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Packers were 1.6 points under with Jonnu Smith and 4.2 points under since Jonnu Smith’s last game over their last 35 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 20.7 and 19.0, a difference of 1.7. All 4 away games were with Jonnu Smith. All 3 division games were with Jonnu Smith. All 5 games on a full week’s rest or more were with Jonnu Smith.
Jonnu Smith, tight end: 94 receiving yards, 6 receptions and 8 targets in 4 of those 35 games.
One game since Jonnu Smith’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Jonnu Smith
−1.6
since Jonnu Smith’s last game
−4.2
-10010
plain
20.7
19.0
102030
The games
with Jonnu Smithsince Jonnu Smith’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | @ CHI | W | 19 | 17.7 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs SF | W | 10 | 21.5 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | vs MIA | W | 17 | 17.6 | |
| Dec 5, 2024 | @ DET | L | 34 | 28.1 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ SEA | W | 13 | 21.7 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | vs NO | W | 0 | 19.0 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ MIN | L | 27 | 22.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsCHI | L | 24 | 15.9 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ PHI | L | 22 | 25.1 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vsDET | W | 13 | 25.9 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | vs WAS | W | 18 | 19.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @ CLE | L | 13 | 17.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ DAL | T | 40 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs CIN | W | 18 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ ARI | W | 23 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ PIT | W | 25 | 22.1 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs CAR | L | 16 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vsPHI | L | 10 | 20.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ NYG | W | 20 | 22.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vsMIN | W | 6 | 19.7 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @DET | W | 24 | 26.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsCHI | W | 21 | 23.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ DEN | L | 34 | 21.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @CHI | L | 22 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs BAL | L | 41 | 20.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @MIN | L | 16 | 20.7 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @CHI | L | 31 | 24.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @MIN | L | 39 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ NYJ | W | 17 | 21.7 | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs ATL | L | 35 | 20.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ TB | W | 14 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsCHI | W | 7 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsDAL | W | 13 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @DET | L | 20 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsCAR | W | 19 | 23.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jonnu Smith nor since Jonnu Smith’s last game: Jonnu Smith had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.