Putting Up Numbers· NFL

The Cowboys' points with P.J. Locke and without P.J. Locke

, ,

Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Cowboys were 4.0 points over with P.J. Locke and 3.0 points over without P.J. Locke over their last 35 games, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 29.0 and 26.4, a difference of 2.6.

P.J. Locke, defensive back: 3 of those 35 games.

3 games with P.J. Locke is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

points a game over expected

A +1.0 difference in points over expected with P.J. Locke vs without P.J. Locke is about what you’d expect.

A +2.6 difference in points with P.J. Locke vs without P.J. Locke is about what you’d expect.

The games

with P.J. Lockewithout P.J. Locke
Dallas Cowboys’ games, last 35 games, each marked with P.J. Locke or without P.J. Locke
SideDateGameResultpointsExpected
Nov 3, 2024@ATLL2122.1
Nov 10, 2024vsPHIL619.3
Nov 18, 2024vsHOUL1021.9
Nov 24, 2024@WASW3420.6
Nov 28, 2024vsNYGW2721.6
Dec 9, 2024vsCINL2024.7
Dec 15, 2024@CARW3026.0
Dec 22, 2024vsTBW2620.8
Dec 29, 2024@PHIL717.8
Jan 5, 2025vsWASL1923.2
Sep 4, 2025@PHIL2022.5
Sep 14, 2025vsNYGW4028.4
Sep 21, 2025@CHIL1427.7
Sep 28, 2025vsGBT4024.8
Oct 5, 2025@NYJW3729.4
Oct 12, 2025@CARL2724.4
Oct 19, 2025vsWASW4428.5
Oct 26, 2025@DENL2422.7
Nov 3, 2025vsARIL1730.6
Nov 17, 2025@LVW3326.8
Nov 23, 2025vsPHIW2423.9
Nov 27, 2025vsKCW3123.9
Dec 4, 2025@DETL3026.0
Dec 14, 2025vsMINL2624.0
Dec 21, 2025vsLACL1726.2
Dec 25, 2025@WASW3027.9
Jan 4, 2026@NYGL1728.6
Sep 13, 2026@NYGL2024.7
Sep 20, 2026vsWASW3724.6
Sep 27, 2026vsBAL (neutral)L3123.9
Oct 4, 2026@HOUW3422.9
Oct 8, 2026vsTBL1623.4
Oct 18, 2026@GBL1323.7
Oct 26, 2026@PHIW3823.4
Nov 1, 2026vsARIL3025.8

Read next

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
  • 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with P.J. Locke nor without P.J. Locke: P.J. Locke had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.