The Chargers' points with Tre Harris and without Tre Harris
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Chargers were 5.6 points under with Tre Harris and 14.5 points under without Tre Harris in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 15.5 and 6.0, a difference of 9.5. All 3 home games were with Tre Harris. All 4 games outside the division were with Tre Harris. All 3 first-half games were with Tre Harris.
Tre Harris, receiver: 256 receiving yards, 18 receptions and 28 targets in 6 games this season.
One game without Tre Harris is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Tre Harris
−5.6
without Tre Harris
−14.5
-10-50
plain
15.5
6.0
101520
The games
with Tre Harriswithout Tre Harris
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 14 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs LV | L | 14 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 16 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 23 | 19.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs DEN | L | 17 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ KC | L | 6 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LA | L | 9 | 20.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.