The Chargers' points with Ladd McConkey and without Ladd McConkey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Chargers were 0.4 points under with Ladd McConkey and 7.5 points under without Ladd McConkey over their last 35 games, 32 games against 3. The plain averages are 21.5 and 12.3, a difference of 9.2. All 23 games outside the division were with Ladd McConkey. Both games after a bye were with Ladd McConkey. Both games on a short week were with Ladd McConkey.
Ladd McConkey, receiver: 2,013 receiving yards, 142 receptions and 208 targets in 32 of those 35 games.
3 games without Ladd McConkey is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A +7.1 difference in points over expected with Ladd McConkey vs without Ladd McConkey is about what you’d expect.
A +9.2 difference in points with Ladd McConkey vs without Ladd McConkey is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 27 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs CIN | W | 34 | 25.3 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | vs BAL | L | 23 | 21.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ ATL | W | 17 | 24.4 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ KC | L | 17 | 20.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs TB | L | 17 | 23.6 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs DEN | W | 34 | 19.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ NE | W | 40 | 22.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ LV | W | 34 | 23.3 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ HOU | L | 12 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsKC (neutral) | W | 27 | 18.4 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @LV | W | 20 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsDEN | W | 23 | 19.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ NYG | L | 18 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs WAS | L | 10 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 29 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs IND | L | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs MIN | W | 37 | 18.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @TEN | W | 27 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs PIT | W | 25 | 22.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ JAX | L | 6 | 19.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsLV | W | 31 | 23.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs PHI | W | 22 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 16 | 18.5 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 34 | 26.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 16 | 17.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @DEN | L | 3 | 19.5 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @NE | L | 3 | 19.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 14 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsLV | L | 14 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 16 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 23 | 19.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsDEN | L | 17 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @KC | L | 6 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LA | L | 9 | 20.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.