The Chargers' points with Derwin James and without Derwin James
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Chargers were 0.2 points over with Derwin James and 8.3 points under without Derwin James over their last 35 games, 30 games against 5. The plain averages are 22.2 and 11.6, a difference of 10.6. Both games on a short week were with Derwin James. Both playoff games were with Derwin James.
Derwin James, defensive back: 6.5 sacks and 4 interceptions in 29 of those 35 games.
points a game over expected
with Derwin James
+0.2
without Derwin James
−8.3
-10010
A +8.5 difference in points over expected with Derwin James vs without Derwin James is about what you’d expect.
plain
22.2
11.6
10203040
A +10.6 difference in points with Derwin James vs without Derwin James is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Derwin Jameswithout Derwin James
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 27 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs CIN | W | 34 | 25.3 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | vs BAL | L | 23 | 21.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ ATL | W | 17 | 24.4 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ KC | L | 17 | 20.2 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs TB | L | 17 | 23.6 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs DEN | W | 34 | 19.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ NE | W | 40 | 22.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ LV | W | 34 | 23.3 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ HOU | L | 12 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsKC (neutral) | W | 27 | 18.4 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @LV | W | 20 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsDEN | W | 23 | 19.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ NYG | L | 18 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs WAS | L | 10 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 29 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs IND | L | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs MIN | W | 37 | 18.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @TEN | W | 27 | 23.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs PIT | W | 25 | 22.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ JAX | L | 6 | 19.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsLV | W | 31 | 23.8 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs PHI | W | 22 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 16 | 18.5 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 34 | 26.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsHOU | L | 16 | 17.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @DEN | L | 3 | 19.5 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @NE | L | 3 | 19.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 14 | 22.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsLV | L | 14 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ BUF | L | 16 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SEA | L | 23 | 19.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsDEN | L | 17 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @KC | L | 6 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LA | L | 9 | 20.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.9 in 2024, plus 1.1 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2024, 69% in 2025, 23% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.