The Chargers' points of margin with Trey Lance and without Trey Lance
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Chargers were 13.1 points under with Trey Lance and 1.6 points under without Trey Lance over their last 35 games, 1 game against 24. The plain averages are -16.0 and -1.9, a difference of 14.1. All 11 home games were without Trey Lance. All 16 games outside the division were without Trey Lance. Both games after a bye were without Trey Lance.
Trey Lance, quarterback: 226 passing yards, 57 pass attempts and 27 completions in 4 of those 35 games.
One game with Trey Lance is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Trey Lance
−13.1
without Trey Lance
−1.6
-20020
plain
-16.0
-1.9
-20020
The games
with Trey Lancewithout Trey Lance
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 10 | 11.3 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs CIN | W | 7 | 2.9 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | vs BAL | L | -7 | -3.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ ATL | W | 4 | 3.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ KC | L | -2 | -1.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs TB | L | -23 | 2.0 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs DEN | W | 7 | -0.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ NE | W | 33 | 5.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ LV | W | 14 | 6.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ HOU | L | -20 | 3.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsKC (neutral) | W | 6 | -1.5 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @LV | W | 11 | 6.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsDEN | W | 3 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ NYG | L | -3 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs WAS | L | -17 | 9.3 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 2 | 3.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs IND | L | -14 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs MIN | W | 27 | -0.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @TEN | W | 7 | 4.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs PIT | W | 15 | 1.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ JAX | L | -29 | -6.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsLV | W | 17 | 10.0 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs PHI | W | 3 | -0.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 3 | -3.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 17 | 0.3 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsHOU | L | -4 | -4.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @DEN | L | -16 | -2.9 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @NE | L | -13 | -5.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ARI | L | -12 | 0.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsLV | L | -12 | -1.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ BUF | L | -8 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SEA | L | -7 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsDEN | L | -6 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @KC | L | -16 | -3.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LA | L | -15 | -2.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with Trey Lance nor without Trey Lance: Trey Lance had no game for the team that season, and sit out.