The Chargers' points of margin with Tre Harris and without Tre Harris
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Chargers were 1.6 points under with Tre Harris and 12.6 points under without Tre Harris over their last 35 games, 24 games against 1. The plain averages are -1.9 and -16.0, a difference of 14.1. All 11 home games were with Tre Harris. All 16 games outside the division were with Tre Harris. Both games after a bye were with Tre Harris.
Tre Harris, receiver: 600 receiving yards, 50 receptions and 74 targets in 23 of those 35 games.
One game without Tre Harris is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Tre Harris
−1.6
without Tre Harris
−12.6
-20020
plain
-1.9
-16.0
-20020
The games
with Tre Harriswithout Tre Harris
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs TEN | W | 10 | 11.3 | |
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs CIN | W | 7 | 2.9 | |
| Nov 25, 2024 | vs BAL | L | -7 | -3.2 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ ATL | W | 4 | 3.3 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ KC | L | -2 | -1.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs TB | L | -23 | 2.0 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs DEN | W | 7 | -0.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ NE | W | 33 | 5.2 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @ LV | W | 14 | 6.2 | |
| Jan 11, 2025 | @ HOU | L | -20 | 3.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsKC (neutral) | W | 6 | -1.5 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @LV | W | 11 | 6.6 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsDEN | W | 3 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ NYG | L | -3 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs WAS | L | -17 | 9.3 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ MIA | W | 2 | 3.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs IND | L | -14 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs MIN | W | 27 | -0.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @TEN | W | 7 | 4.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs PIT | W | 15 | 1.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @ JAX | L | -29 | -6.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsLV | W | 17 | 10.0 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | vs PHI | W | 3 | -0.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 3 | -3.3 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 17 | 0.3 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vsHOU | L | -4 | -4.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @DEN | L | -16 | -2.9 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @NE | L | -13 | -5.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ARI | L | -12 | 0.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsLV | L | -12 | -1.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ BUF | L | -8 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SEA | L | -7 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsDEN | L | -6 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @KC | L | -16 | -3.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LA | L | -15 | -2.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 2.3 in 2025, plus 0.4 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 28% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 10 games in 2024 are neither with Tre Harris nor without Tre Harris: Tre Harris had no game for the team that season, and sit out.