The Chargers' points of margin with Ladd McConkey and without Ladd McConkey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Chargers were 8.7 points under with Ladd McConkey and 2.2 points under without Ladd McConkey in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -11.7 and -6.0, a difference of 5.7. All 4 away games were with Ladd McConkey. All 4 games outside the division were with Ladd McConkey. All 3 first-half games were with Ladd McConkey.
Ladd McConkey, receiver: 286 receiving yards, 17 receptions and 24 targets in 6 games this season.
One game without Ladd McConkey is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Ladd McConkey
−8.7
without Ladd McConkey
−2.2
-10-50
plain
-11.7
-6.0
-15-10
The games
with Ladd McConkeywithout Ladd McConkey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs ARI | L | -12 | 0.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs LV | L | -12 | -1.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ BUF | L | -8 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SEA | L | -7 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs DEN | L | -6 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ KC | L | -16 | -3.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ LA | L | -15 | -2.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.