The Cardinals' rushing yards with Jeremiyah Love and without Jeremiyah Love
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Cardinals were 1.6 yards under with Jeremiyah Love and 5.2 yards under without Jeremiyah Love in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 110.0 and 107.0, a difference of 3.0. All 4 first-half games were with Jeremiyah Love.
Jeremiyah Love, running back: 268 rushing yards, 76 carries and 11 receptions in 6 games this season, 41% of ARI’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Jeremiyah Love is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +3.5 difference in rushing yards over expected with Jeremiyah Love vs without Jeremiyah Love is about what you’d expect.
A +3.0 difference in rushing yards with Jeremiyah Love vs without Jeremiyah Love is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 116 | 113.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs SEA | L | 70 | 102.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ SF | L | 93 | 98.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 123 | 121.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs DET | L | 56 | 113.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LA | W | 120 | 109.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs DEN | L | 94 | 115.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ DAL | W | 202 | 121.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 32% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.