The Cardinals' carries vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Cardinals were 4.5 carries under vs a division opponent and 0.1 carries under vs a team outside the division over their last 35 games, 13 games against 22. The plain averages are 21.2 and 25.8, a difference of 4.6.
The Cardinals' −4.3 vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division over expected ranks 30th of the 32 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 35 games.
carries a game over expected
A −4.3 difference in carries over expected vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −4.6 difference in carries vs a division opponent and vs a team outside the division is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a division opponent and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | @ MIA | W | 26 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 3, 2024 | vs CHI | W | 34 | 27.0 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs NYJ | W | 32 | 28.9 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ SEA | L | 14 | 27.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | @ MIN | L | 31 | 23.4 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | vsSEA | L | 23 | 26.9 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs NE | W | 32 | 29.9 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ CAR | L | 29 | 32.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ LA | L | 22 | 28.1 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs SF | W | 27 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | @ NO | W | 27 | 25.7 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsCAR | W | 22 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @SF | L | 28 | 23.4 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vsSEA | L | 17 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs TEN | L | 29 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ IND | L | 24 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs GB | L | 28 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | @ DAL | W | 29 | 24.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @SEA | L | 23 | 23.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsSF | L | 14 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs JAX | L | 20 | 22.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ TB | L | 19 | 22.4 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsLA | L | 14 | 24.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ HOU | L | 21 | 22.9 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs ATL | L | 23 | 25.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ CIN | L | 13 | 26.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @LA | L | 15 | 24.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 34 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsSEA | L | 17 | 27.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @SF | L | 27 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ NYG | L | 26 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs DET | L | 18 | 26.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @LA | W | 35 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs DEN | L | 24 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @DAL | W | 27 | 27.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.