The Broncos' turnovers with RJ Harvey and without RJ Harvey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Broncos were 0.4 turnovers under with RJ Harvey and 0.8 turnovers under without RJ Harvey in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.8 and 0.5, a difference of 0.3. All 4 away games were with RJ Harvey.
RJ Harvey, running back: 87 rushing yards, 24 carries and 25 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without RJ Harvey is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
turnovers a game over expected
A +0.3 difference in turnovers over expected with RJ Harvey vs without RJ Harvey is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with RJ Harvey and it comes up 16 times in 100.
A +0.3 difference in turnovers with RJ Harvey vs without RJ Harvey is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | turnovers | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ KC | L | 2 | 1.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs JAX | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | 1 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 0 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 0 | 1.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 2% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.