The Broncos' carries with RJ Harvey and without RJ Harvey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Broncos were 0.7 carries under with RJ Harvey and 0.3 carries under without RJ Harvey over their last 35 games, 25 games against 2. The plain averages are 25.9 and 25.5, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 0.8 carries higher with RJ Harvey than without RJ Harvey. All 11 away games were with RJ Harvey. All 3 games on a short week were with RJ Harvey. Both playoff games were with RJ Harvey.
RJ Harvey, running back: 684 rushing yards, 189 carries and 81 receptions in 25 of those 35 games, 29% of DEN’s carries in those games.
2 games without RJ Harvey is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −0.4 difference in carries over expected with RJ Harvey vs without RJ Harvey is about what you’d expect.
A +0.4 difference in carries with RJ Harvey vs without RJ Harvey is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs ATL | W | 26 | 26.6 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ LV | W | 22 | 27.1 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | vs CLE | W | 26 | 27.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs IND | W | 27 | 30.5 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | @ LAC | L | 21 | 26.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | @ CIN | L | 27 | 26.8 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs KC | W | 43 | 24.4 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ BUF | L | 17 | 27.1 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs TEN | W | 30 | 26.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @IND | L | 24 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @LAC | L | 21 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 29, 2025 | vsCIN | W | 38 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ PHI | W | 29 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | vs NYJ (neutral) | W | 26 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 24 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs DAL | W | 28 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ HOU | W | 23 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vsLV | W | 27 | 28.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsKC | W | 21 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 23 | 28.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @LV | W | 31 | 27.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs GB | W | 31 | 27.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs JAX | L | 17 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 25, 2025 | @KC | W | 32 | 25.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsLAC | W | 31 | 25.8 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vsBUF | W | 22 | 26.6 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vs NE | L | 24 | 25.5 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | @KC | L | 15 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsJAX | W | 28 | 25.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 25 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | 22 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @LAC | W | 29 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 28 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 26 | 26.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 23 | 26.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 8 games in 2024 are neither with RJ Harvey nor without RJ Harvey: RJ Harvey had no game for the team that season, and sit out.