The Broncos' carries with RJ Harvey and without RJ Harvey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Broncos were 2.3 carries under with RJ Harvey and 0.3 carries under without RJ Harvey in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 24.2 and 25.5, a difference of 1.3. All 4 away games were with RJ Harvey.
RJ Harvey, running back: 87 rushing yards, 24 carries and 25 receptions in 6 games this season, 17% of DEN’s carries in those games.
2 games without RJ Harvey is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with RJ Harvey
−2.3
without RJ Harvey
−0.3
-10-50
A −2.0 difference in carries over expected with RJ Harvey vs without RJ Harvey is about what you’d expect.
plain
24.2
25.5
152025
A −1.3 difference in carries with RJ Harvey vs without RJ Harvey is about what you’d expect.
The games
with RJ Harveywithout RJ Harvey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ KC | L | 15 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs JAX | W | 28 | 25.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LA | W | 25 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ SF | L | 22 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ LAC | W | 29 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs SEA | W | 28 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ ARI | W | 26 | 26.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vsKC | W | 23 | 26.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.