The Bears' rushing yards with Kyle Monangai and since Kyle Monangai’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bears were 23.1 yards over with Kyle Monangai and 17.8 yards under since Kyle Monangai’s last game over their last 35 games, 23 games against 4. The plain averages are 151.9 and 105.3, a difference of 46.7. Both playoff games were with Kyle Monangai.
Kyle Monangai, running back: 1,170 rushing yards, 250 carries and 28 receptions in 23 of those 35 games, 33% of CHI’s rushing yards in those games.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +40.9 difference in rushing yards over expected with Kyle Monangai vs since Kyle Monangai’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +46.7 difference in rushing yards with Kyle Monangai vs since Kyle Monangai’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kyle Monangai and it comes up 20 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | vs GB | L | 179 | 79.4 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | vs MIN | L | 78 | 83.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ DET | L | 78 | 91.9 | |
| Dec 8, 2024 | @ SF | L | 68 | 116.2 | |
| Dec 16, 2024 | @MIN | L | 113 | 80.9 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vsDET | L | 59 | 93.0 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs SEA | L | 103 | 105.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | @GB | W | 83 | 89.2 | |
| Sep 8, 2025 | vsMIN | L | 119 | 132.2 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @DET | L | 134 | 125.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs DAL | W | 87 | 136.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ LV | W | 69 | 130.6 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | @ WAS | W | 150 | 139.7 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs NO | W | 222 | 122.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ BAL | L | 96 | 125.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 283 | 133.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 171 | 143.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | @MIN | W | 140 | 128.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs PIT | W | 99 | 128.7 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ PHI | W | 281 | 118.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @GB | L | 138 | 126.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 142 | 128.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsGB | W | 150 | 127.3 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @SF | L | 110 | 125.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsDET | L | 65 | 131.6 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsGB | W | 93 | 130.5 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs LA | L | 160 | 122.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 291 | 118.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsMIN | L | 134 | 126.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | vsPHI | W | 128 | 136.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 232 | 123.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @GB | L | 81 | 126.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 98 | 132.2 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NE | W | 116 | 117.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @SEA | W | 126 | 116.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 49% in 2025, 32% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 8 games in 2024 are neither with Kyle Monangai nor since Kyle Monangai’s last game: Kyle Monangai had no game for the team that season, and sit out.