The Bears' points of margin with Caleb Williams and without Caleb Williams
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bears were 8.6 points over with Caleb Williams and 1.4 points under without Caleb Williams in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 9.4 and 2.3, a difference of 7.1.
Caleb Williams, quarterback: 1,267 passing yards, 158 pass attempts and 112 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Caleb Williams is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Caleb Williams
+8.6
without Caleb Williams
−1.4
-20020
A +10.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Caleb Williams vs without Caleb Williams is about what you’d expect.
plain
9.4
2.3
-20020
A +7.1 difference in points of margin with Caleb Williams vs without Caleb Williams is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Caleb Williamswithout Caleb Williams
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ CAR | W | 22 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs MIN | L | -6 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | vs PHI | W | 20 | 4.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 11 | 2.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ GB | L | -24 | 3.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ ATL | W | 8 | 2.0 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs NE | W | 6 | 0.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | @ SEA | W | 17 | -0.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.